La Crosse, WI

Weather Forecast Office

Some More Improvement in the Drought

Summary
River and Stream Flow
Agricultural Impacts
Fire Hazards
Precip & Temp Outlooks
Questions?

Some More Improvement in the Drought

Updated on Thursday, November 21, 2024
Next Scheduled Update: Thursday, November 28, 2024

Summary:

From August 21 through November 19 (past 90 days), rainfall totals ranged from 4.31" near Oelwein, IA to 12.19" near Prairie du Chien, WI. Rainfall departures ranged from 2" wetter-than-normal to 5" drier than normal. The largest deficits (up to to 5") were west of the Mississippi River. Temperatures anomalies ranged from 3 to 7°F warmer than normal. This combination of dryness and above normal temperatures since mid-August had resulted in abnormally dry (D0) to moderate (D1) drought.

During the past week (November 13 through November 19), rainfall totals ranged from 0.50" near Rochester, MN to 1.86" near Necedah, WI. Typically 0.4" of rain falls during this time period. This ended the abnormally dry (D0) conditions across much of central and southwest Wisconsin.

Note: The impacts of any precipitation that fell after 7 AM Tuesday, November 19 will be evaluated next week.

U.S. Drought Monitor Summary:

In the November 19 release of the U.S. Drought Monitor, abnormally dry (D0) to severe (D2) drought was found across all of Minnesota and northern Illinois, and from no drought to severe (D2) drought in Iowa and Wisconsin.

Note: The data cutoff for Drought Monitor maps is Tuesday at 7 a.m. Central Daylight Time.

State Drought Statistics


Iowa	Minnesota	Wisconsin

Local Area Affected:

Moderate (D1) Drought in all or parts of:

Northeast Iowa: Chickasaw, Fayette, Floyd, Howard, Michell, and Winneshiek counties.
Southeast Minnesota: Fillmore and Mower counties.

Abnormally Dry (D0) to Moderate (D1) Drought in all or parts of:

Northeast Iowa: Allamakee and Fayette counties.
Southeast Minnesota: Dodge, Houston, Olmsted, Wabasha, and Winona counties.
Western Wisconsin: Buffalo and Taylor counties.

Abnormally Dry (D0) in all or parts of:

Western Wisconsin: Clark, Crawford, Grant, Jackson, La Crosse, and Trempealeau counties.

State/Local Government Actions:

No known actions are taking place in northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and western Wisconsin.

Climatological Summary:

From August 21 through November 19 (past 90 days), rainfall totals ranged from 4.31" near Oelwein, IA to 12.19" near Prairie du Chien, WI. Rainfall departures ranged from 2" wetter-than-normal to 5" drier than normal. The largest deficits (up to to 5") were west of the Mississippi River. Temperatures anomalies ranged from 3 to 7°F warmer than normal. This combination of dryness and above normal temperatures since mid-August had resulted in abnormally dry (D0) to moderate (D1) drought.

During the past week (November 13 through November 19), rainfall totals ranged from 0.50" near Rochester, MN to 1.86" near Necedah, WI. Typically 0.4" of rain falls during this time period. This ended the abnormally dry (D0) conditions across much of central and southwest Wisconsin.

Precipitation Departures from August 21 through November 19, 2024.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between several federal agencies including NOAA/NWS, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Details and explanations of the Drought Monitor can be found at:

U.S. Drought Monitor

The categories of drought are defined as follows:

Abnormally Dry (D0) - Going into drought: short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops or pastures; fire risk above average. Coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered.

Moderate Drought (D1) - Some damage to crops and pastures; fire risk high; streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some water shortages developing or imminent, voluntary water use restrictions requested.

Severe Drought (D2) - Crop or pasture losses likely; fire risk very high; water shortages common; water restrictions imposed.

Extreme Drought (D3) - Major crop/pasture losses; extreme fire danger; widespread water shortages or restrictions.

Exceptional Drought (D4) - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; exceptional fire risk; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies.

Potential Evapotranspiration Rates:

Iowa

Disaster & Drought Assistance:

Other Drought Web Sites:

Minnesota DNR
ReadyWisconsin (Part of the Wisconsin Emergency Management Team)

Drought Plans:

River and Stream Flow Conditions:

As of the morning of November 19, rivers and stream flows ranged from near normal to much above normal in southeast Minnesota, and from southwest into central Wisconsin; and from near to above normal in northeast Iowa.

NOTE: This is time-sensitive and conditions could change. Updated river and streamflow conditions can be found via links to the right.

Hourly and forecast river stages out to 90 days can be found at:

NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)

Additional Current stream and river stages may be viewed at:

USGS WaterWatch

An interactive table of sites that are at or near record flows can be found at:

USGS WaterWatch

Agricultural Impacts:

Here are the latest Agricultural Statistics Service reports for Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin issued on November 18, 2024.

Iowa

Iowa’s farmers had an average of 3.6 days suitable for fieldwork during the week. Primary fieldwork activities included fall tillage, fertilizer applications, and some row crop harvest.

Topsoil moisture condition rated 8 percent very short, 28 percent short, 61 percent adequate and 3 percent surplus.
Subsoil moisture condition rated 15 percent very short, 44 percent short, 40 percent adequate and 1 percent surplus.

Corn harvested for grain reached 97 percent statewide.

Livestock producers continue to deal with muddy feedlots.

Minnesota

Minnesota farmers averaged 4.9 days suitable for fieldwork during the week. Field activities included fall tillage and fertilizer applications.

Topsoil moisture supplies were rated 16 percent very short, 37 percent short, 45 percent adequate, and 2 percent surplus.
Subsoil moisture supplies were rated 15 percent very short, 43 percent short, 41 percent adequate, and 1 percent surplus.

Sunflower harvest was virtually complete at 96 percent.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin had 4.6 days suitable for fieldwork statewide for the week. Above normal temperatures continued throughout Wisconsin. Precipitation events were common in the southern and eastern parts of the state. The corn for grain harvest continued for late planted corn. Fall tillage continued when conditions allowed. Other activities included carrot harvesting, cranberry bog maintenance, supplemental livestock feeding, and manure application.

Topsoil moisture condition rated 2 percent very short, 26 percent short, 66 percent adequate and 6 percent surplus.
Subsoil moisture condition rated 8 percent very short, 34 percent short, 55 percent adequate and 2 percent surplus.

Corn for grain was 94 percent harvested, remaining well ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Moisture content of corn harvested for grain remained at 16 percent.

Ninety-four percent of the winter wheat crop has emerged, 2 days ahead of last year. Winter wheat condition was rated 73 percent good to excellent, down 1 percentage point from last week. Fall tillage was 81 percent complete.

NASS Soil Moisture Conditions in Northeast Iowa, Southeast Minnesota, & Western Wisconsin as of November 17, 2024
State	Region	Soil	Percent of Moisture
State	Region	Soil	Very Short	Short	Adequate	Surplus
Iowa	North-Central	Top Soil	14	28	58	0
	North-Central	Sub Soil	20	43	37	0
	Northeast	Top Soil	2	23	72	3
	Northeast	Sub Soil	12	45	42	1
Minnesota	State	Top Soil	16	37	45	2
Minnesota	State	Sub Soil	15	43	41	1
Wisconsin	Southwest	Top Soil	0	17	75	8
	Southwest	Sub Soil	20	39	40	1
	West-Central	Top Soil	7	29	63	1
	West-Central	Sub Soil	9	47	42	2
	Central	Top Soil	5	17	67	11
	Central	Sub Soil	0	27	69	4
	North-Central	Top Soil	0	28	72	0
	North-Central	Sub Soil	4	24	66	6

Soil moisture supply measures how much moisture is present in cropland topsoil during the week. Soil moisture is reported as a percentage. The categories very short, short, adequate, and surplus must add up to 100%.

Very Short - Soil moisture supplies are significantly less than what is required for normal plant development. Growth has been stopped, or nearly so, and plants are showing visible signs of moisture stress. Under these conditions, plants will quickly suffer irreparable damage.

Short - Soil dry. Seed germination and/or normal crop growth and development would be curtailed.

Adequate - Soil moist. Seed germination and/or crop growth and development would be normal or unhindered.

Surplus - Soil wet. Fields may be muddy and will generally be unable to absorb additional moisture. Young developing crops may be yellowing from excess moisture.

The map below lists the Agricultural Districts in southeast Minnesota, western Wisconsin, and northeast Iowa.

Additional information on agriculture impacts may be viewed from the:

Fire Danger Hazards:

As of the morning of November 19, fire danger ranged from low (fires are not easily started) to high (fires start easily and spread at a high rate) in northeast Iowa. Meanwhile, fire danger was low in southeast Minnesota and from southwest into central Wisconsin.

NOTE: This is time-sensitive and conditions could change from day to day. Fire conditions can change drastically on drier, windy days. Updated DNR fire conditions can be found via links to the right.

Citizens should always check with local officials in their area before undertaking any outside burning. Citizens are liable for damages and suppression costs of any wildfire they may start.

Description of Fire Danger Ratings

For updated DNR Fire Conditions consult the following Web Sites:

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a drought index that is specifically related to fire potential. The KDBI is broken into four categories which indicate the susceptibility of ground fuels to fire danger. Below are the four categories and a brief description of each.

Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KDBI)
KBDI Value	Description of Fire Potential
0 to 200	Low - Wet with little danger of fire initiation
201 to 400	Moderate - Drying occurring with some fire danger
401 to 600	High - Ground cover is dry and will burn readily
601 to 800	Extreme - Dead and live fuels will burn readily

KBDI and Dead Fuel Moisture data can be found through the:

Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS)

Burn Bans:

Iowa

Precipitation/Temperature Outlooks:

From November 21 through November 27, temperatures will be near normal, and precipitation will be below normal. During this time frame, daily average temperatures range from 29 to 34°F, and precipitation averages around 4 tenths of an inch.

From November 28 through December 4 (8-14 day outlook), the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting enhanced chances of below-normal temperatures (50-60%) and near-normal precipitation (33-40%). The normal daily average temperatures for this period range from 26 to 31°F and the normal precipitation is around 4 tenths of an inch.

During December, the Climate Prediction Center has equal chances of warmer-, near-, and colder-than-normal; and drier-, near-, and, wetter-than-normal in the Upper Mississippi River Valley. December normal temperatures range from 15 to 20°F north of Wisconsin 29 and from 20 to 25°F elsewhere, and precipitation ranges from 1.2 to 2.2". The highest precipitation is in southwest Wisconsin.

From December 2024 through February 2025, the Climate Prediction Center has equal chances of warmer-, near-, and colder-than-normal in the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The forecast for precipitation has enhanced chances for wetter-than-normal (33-40%) for the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Seasonal temperatures range from teens to mid-20s. Seasonal precipitation ranges from 3 to 5".

Below are the seasonal outlooks for the next year.