A few strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon through the overnight hours across north central and portions of northwest NM. The main threats will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storm motion will be toward the northeast around 35 to 45 mph.
The wet period persists thru Wednesday night with the potential for thunderstorms to train repeatedly over the same areas of central NM, mainly along the Sangre de Cristo Mts. General rainfall totals thru Wednesday night look to total up to 0.10" to 0.25" with higher amounts of near 1.00" over the Sangre de Cristo's. Localized higher amounts of 1 to 2 inches will focus where thunderstorms train over the same areas.
Recent and expected rainfall will push the Animas and San Juan Rivers in northwest New Mexico toward bankfull status (Action Stage) late tonight into Wednesday morning. River flooding is not expected at this time, but banks can become unstable and erode rapidly. If the reasonable worst-case scenario rainfall amounts were to occur, especially within southwest Colorado, some river points may reach 'Minor Flood' stage in northwest New Mexico. Avoid recreational activities in the river during these high flows!
Colder and drier air moves in Thursday setting up low temperatures to fall to near or below freezing for many areas across northern and western NM, and portions of central NM Friday and Saturday mornings. This will be a season-ending freeze for many of these locations.
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